The set-up: These were two of the better defensive clubs in the league, but I expect this one to sneak "over" the number once it's all said and done. The Spurs come in on top form having won 15 of their final 20 games. The Nuggets on the other hand dropped four of their final seven down the stretch. These teams are evenly matched and they go on to split their season series.

The pick: While their four regular season games all went "under" the number, the numbers this time around suggest a higher-scoring shootout finally. As note that the Spurs have seen the total go "over" in 25 of 41 on the road already this season and in seven of their last ten in the first round of the playoffs, while Denver has seen the total soar "over" in seven of its last nine home games when the total in the contest is set between 209.5 and 211.5. This number is low, play the "over."

Spurs/Nuggets OVER

10* play