The set-up: Miami won 6-5 last night, breaking the Cubs seven-game win streak, but I think the home side will bounce back here in what I believe to be a favorable matchup on the mound for it. The visitors hand the ball to Caleb Smith, while the Cubs counter with Jon Lester.

The pitchers: Smith (3-0, 2.00 ERA) has walked nine and struck out 45 over 36 innings of work.

Lester (2-1, 1.73) has walked seven and struck out 27 in 26 innings of work.

The pick: The Cubs are still 10-5 at home this year. Previous to their win yesterday the Marlins had lost three straight. Miami is just 5-12 this year as an underdog of +150 or higher, while Chicago is 4-1 in its last five vs. southpaws. Lay the price with confidence.

Chicago Cubs

8* play