The set-up: The Cards scored 17 runs in Thursday's win over the Pirates, but they managed only one in their 2-1 setback to the Bucs last night. St. Louis won't be taking anything for granted here though as it's lost seven of nine. The home side hands the ball to Miles Mikolas, while the visitors go with Jordan Lyles.

The pitchers: Lyles (2-1, 2.20 ERA) gave up one run off five hits over seven innings in a no-decision vs. the A's last week. Lyles though has struggled against the Cardinals, going 0-3 with a 4.91 ERA lifetime, including 0-2 with a ballooned 6.14 ERA at Busch Stadium.

Mikolas (4-2, 4.02) comes off back-to-back strong outings and I don't think there's any reason not to believe that he can't keep the progression rolling here. Most recently he's given up just one run over his last two starts vs. the Nats and Phillies. In six starts vs. Pittsburgh he's 2-2 with a respectable 3.03 ERA.

The pick: Note that Cards' slugger Paul Goldschmidt is 10 for 20 with three extra base hits and four walks vs. Lyles. I think the determined home side breaks out again at the plate. Lay the price.

STL Cards