The set-up: I think the home side is well worth the price of admission in this spot on Sunday afternoon. The Mets have won two in a row and eight straight vs. the Marlins. With a victory today the Mets will also move back to .500. Miami is the worst team in the league and its pitching staff has allowed 12 home runs on its road trip and homer 11 straight games overall. The Mets hand the ball to Noah Syndergaard and the home side counters with Caleb Smith.

The pitchers: Smith (3-0, 2.11 ERA) gave up two runs off five hits over 6 2/3's innings vs. the Cubs on Tuesday. Smith has been sharp, but I think he's in the wrong place at the wrong time here.

Syndergaard (2-3, 5.14 ERA) has been hit or miss this year, but he's dominated the Marlins throughout his career, going 6-0 with a 1.64 ERA in eight career starts vs. them, including 2-0 with a 0.78 ERA in three career home starts vs. the Fish.

The pick: Miami is 0-6 as a road dog in the +105 to +150 range, while New York is now 13-8 vs. the division this season. All things considered, I feel this is a very fair price for a Mets team which will be taking nothing for granted this afternoon.

NY Mets

9* play