The set-up: Yes, Milwaukee took three of four from the Raptors in the regular season. Three of those games though were before the acquisition of big man Marc Gasol. Toronto got better as the season wore on as well and it certainly looks a lot better now that the playoffs are here. Toronto is only averaging 103.6 PPG in the playoffs, but Toronto has made up for it on the other end of the court by allowing a league leading 96 points. The Bucks smashed the Celtics and they come in averaging 116.9 PPG, while allowing 101.6 in the post-season.

The pick: I think Toronto turns this series into an all out war. It'll try to take the Bucks out of their comfort level while attempting to dictate the flow. From a situational stand point I think this one sets up great as a lower-scoring defensive battle. But note as well that Toronto has seen the total go under the number in 15 of 24 this year after failing to cover the spread in two or more consecutive games, while Milwaukee has seen the total go under in 17 of its last 27 after scoring 110 points or more in four straight games. This number is high.

8* Under.