The set-up: Enough is enough! After starting 10-31, the Marlins are now 13-5 after taking the first two games of this series by a combined score of 24-3 (includes 16-0 win on Tuesday.) I think Caleb Smith and the visiting side finally come back down to Earth on Thursday afternoon though and I look for the hungry Freddy Peralta to take advantage.

The pitchers: Smith (3-3, 3.10 ERA) has been in a "free fall" over the last month, going 0-3 with a 5.40 ERA over his past four starts, after starting 13-5 with a 1.99 ERA.

Peralta (2-2, 5.68) for whatever reason has "feasted" in the month of June, going 2-0 with a 0.00 ERA in 13 innings, allowing only three hits to go along with a sharp 17-1 strikeout to walk ratio (is 6-6 with a 4.72 ERA in all other months combined.)

The pick: Take it for what you will as well but Miami is just 4-11 (-4.9 units) this year as a road underdog in the +125 to +175 range, while Milwaukee is 71-55 (+20.3 units) the L2 years after having lost two of its last three games. I think the revenge minded and thoroughly humbled home side lays everything on the line this afternoon and finds a way to salvage the finale. Lay the price.

10* Milwaukee