The set-up: Texas battled for a late win last night, but I like the home side to bounce back on Sunday afternoon. The visitors hand the ball to Arial Jurado, while the home side counters with Sonny Gray. In fact the Reds will be desperate to avoid the three-game sweep and all signs point to a letdown here from Texas in my opinion.

The pitchers: Jurado (4-2, 3.02 ERA) allowed three runs off five hits over six innings in a 9-5 win over Boston in his last start.

Gray (2-5, 3.65) has faced Texas 14 times in his career and gone 8-3 with a 2.72 ERA.

The pick: Jurado has been decent of late, but I think he's in the wrong place at the wrong time today. Note as well that Texas is still only 10-20 (-5.6 units) this season as a road underdog, while Cincinnati is 7-2 in its last nine home games following a two games or more losing streak to an interleague opponent. Lay the price.

Cincinnati Reds (vs. Texas Rangers)

9* play