The set-up: These two teams are moving in opposite directions in the win/loss column (Reds have won four of six, while Pittsburgh has lost eight in a row and 14 of 16 since the break), but for a number of different reasons, I think this one sets up as a "duel." The visitors hand the ball to Jordan Lyles, while the home side goes with Sonny Gray.

The pitchers: Lyles (5-7, 5.36 ERA) is 0-6 over his last six starts, but he'll look to get back on track against a team he's enjoyed success against the past, going a respectable 4-2 with a 4.10 ERA and 1.19 WHIP in 16 career matchups vs. Cincinnati.

Gray (5-6, 3.29) comes in on top form, he's 2-1 with a minuscule 1.62 ERA over his last five starts.

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Pittsburgh has seen the total go under the number in 20 of its last 32 vs. the division, while Cincinnati has seen the total dip under in 17 of 27 as a home favorite already this year. This number is a little high.

10* play on the UNDER Pirates/Reds.