The set-up: While the first two games of this series have gone under the number, I think that these two hungry clubs (tied for the lead in the NL Central) will post plenty of runs in the rubber match. The visitors hand the ball to Jon Lester, while the home side goes with Joe Flaherty.

The pitchers: Lester (9-6, 3.63 ERA) is coming off a strong start and he's had plenty of success vs. the Cards in the past, but I think he's in the wrong place at the wrong time here (note that the Cards are 30-23 at home, while the Cubs are only 21-32 on the road this season.)

Flaherty (4-6, 4.17) has been very hot of late, but he's struggled mightily vs. the Cubs throughout his career, going 1-2 with a 4.50 ERA in six match ups.

The pick: Note that the Cubs are expected to welcome slugger Nicholas Castellanos on Thursday night as well, acquired from the Tigers at the trade deadline. Expect these starters to get chased early and look for this total to fly over sooner, rather than later.

Chicago Cubs/St Louis Cards OVER 10* play