The set-up: It's an important game/series for both teams, meaning that the home field advantage can't be overlooked as a very real deciding factor. The Brewers hand the ball to Zach Davies, while the home side goes with Jose Quintana.

The pitchers: Davies (8-4, 3.56 ERA) was 5-0 with a 1.54 ERA over his first nine starts this year, but he's since fallen apart, especially of late in getting blown out in back-to-back losses, most recently allowing seven runs off four hits over five innings in an 11-4 loss to the Cubs on Sunday.

Quintana (8-7, 4.47) has one good start and one bad start vs. the Brewers this year, but overall he's 6-4 with a 2.80 ERA vs. Milwaukee for his career.

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Milwaukee is just 12-16 as a road dog this year, while the Cubs are 22-7 this season as a home favorite in the -125 to -175 range. For all the reasons listed above, lay the price.

Chicago Cubs 10* play