The set-up: Mike Soroka is putting together a fantastic rookie campaign for the Braves, as he's played a big part in the team's success this year. Sandy Alcantara has been more "miss" than "hit" for the Fish this season and I believe he'll have his hands full here vs. the hard-hitting visiting side. When you add it all up, I believe this number is a little low.

The pitchers: Soroka (10-2, 2.45 ERA) most recently gave up three runs over seven innings in a no-decision to the Twins on Monday. It's difficult to say anything negative about Soroka, other than his low strikeout numbers (97 K's in 121 frames).

Alcantara (4-10, 4.50) enters off a decent start vs. the Mets on Monday, allowing two runs over five innings in a no-decision. Despite the effort though, note that Alcantara still has a poor 7.21 ERA since the All-Star break.

The pick: Also note that Alcantara is just 2-8 with a 5.94 ERA in all "night" games this year. Take it for what you will as well, but ATL has seen the total go over the number in seven of its last ten National League road games with a total set at either 8 or 8.5 and as a -125 to -175 favorite. Everything points to a "slug-fest."

Atlanta Braves/Miami Marlins OVER 10* play