The set-up: These are two hungry teams, but I think that the talent discrepancy on the mound makes the Astros the correct call in this matchup on Tuesday night. The visitors hand the ball to Zack Greinke, while the home side counters with Jordan Lyles.

The pitchers: Greinke (14-4, 2.99 ERA) is 4-0 in five starts since being acquired by the Astros. He gave up five runs to the Rays on Thursday over six innings, although he did strike out eight.

Lyles (9-8, 4.55) is 4-1 in six starts since coming over from the Pirates, but he's still a pedestrian 4-5 with a 4.77 ERA in all "home" situations this season.

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Houston is 18-8 this year as a road favorite in the -125 to -175 range, while Milwaukee is only 5-8 in its last 12 as an underdog in the +125 to +175 range. Lay the price with confidence.

Houston Astros 8* play