The set-up: I think this is ultimately a bigger mismatch on the mound than what this line would suggest. Atlanta took the first game of this series, but the Phillies responded with a 6-5 victory in last night' contest. I look for ATL to respond on Wednesday. The Braves go with Dallas Keuchel, while the home side goes with Zach Eflin.

The pitchers: Keuchel (7-5, 3.47 ERA) has allowed only three runs over his last five starts, going 4-0 with a 0.87 ERA in that span.

Eflin (8-11, 4.31) is 0-2 with a 19.06 ERA vs. Atlanta this year, allowing 12 earned runs over 5 2/3's innings opposed. Most recently Eflin allowed six hits and two runs over five innings in a 5-4 loss to the Mets.

The pick: Eflin hasn't fared well vs. the Braves throughout his career, going just 2-2 with a 5.02 ERA. Despite yesterday's loss Atlanta has won ten of its last 12 and I expect it to get back on track here in this important game. Lay the short price.

10* PLAY-BOOK on the Atlanta Braves.