The set-up: WKU is just 1-1 this year, but its been competitive in each contest. In Week 1 the Hilltoppers fell to Central Arkansas by a score of 35-28, before then rebounding with a solid 20-14 victory over FIU last weekend. Louisville has a 1-1 mark as well, falling 35-17 to Notre Dame, before then waxing EKU 42-0 last weekend.

The pick: The trends DO NOT favor the favorite in this one though, as note that the Cardinals are a terrible 3-11-1 ATS in their last 15 non-conference games and 0-4 ATS in their last four neutral site affairs. WKU on the other hand is 27-17 ATS the last two years after holding its previous opponent to 14 points or less. Western Kentucky QB Steven Duncan matches Louisville QB Jawon Pass in my opinion and that means that I'm grabbing up the points.

8* play on WKU.