The set-up: For a number of different reasons, I look for this total to fly over the number sooner, rather than later. The visitors go with Joey Lucchesi, while the home side goes with Jordan Lyles. The Padres broke a six-game losing streak with a 2-1 win last night, but the Brewers are still surging towards a wild card spot. Note that the loss was just the second in the Brewers last 13 games overall.

The pitchers: Lucchesi (10-8, 4.22 ERA) was shelled for eight runs over 3 2/3's innings in a 10-8 loss to the Rockies on Friday.

Lyles (11-8, 4.25) is 3-4 with a 5.02 ERA in 13 career games vs. the Friars.

The pick: After yesterday's "duel," the conditions now definitely seem right for more of a "slug-fest" on Thursday afternoon. This number is a tad low in my opinion.

10* TOTAL PLAYBOOK on the OVER Padres/Brewers.