The set-up: Normally the Saints like to dominate teams by running them off the field with their fast paced offense, but I don't think they'll run up the score here on the short week. The Falcons have major issues across the board and New Orleans is going to be able to sit back and control this one and look for the host to make the first mistake. The Saints held on for a crucial 34-31 win over Carolina last weekend and they're in the drivers seat for the No. 2 spot in the NFC. The Falcons are out of contention and come in off a 35-22 loss to the Bucs last weekend.

The pick: Note that the Saints have seen the total go under the number in 12 of their last 17 after a home victory, while ATL has seen the total dip below in four of five at home already this season. On the short week and on Thanksgiving night, expect these defenses to be the main story lines in tomorrow's summaries.

10* play on the UNDER Saints/Falcons.