The set-up: I have the Bills at 5.5. Whether you have 5, 5.5 or 6, I love this play. So far the Lamar Jackson and the Ravens have passed almost every test this year, but I think they're in trouble here this weekend vs. this under the radar Bills team which continues to get little respect from the oddsmakers. The Ravens have a "cream puff" at home vs. the Jets next weekend, followed by games vs. the Browns and then at home vs. the Steelers. Both teams have superb defenses, so I'm calling that area a "wash." Jackson have been phenomenal, but Bills' QB Josh Allen has gotten progressively better each week as well and he's been particularly sharp over the last month.

The pick: The road ahead though is not quite as "easy" for the Bills, who have back-to-back road games at Pittsburgh and New England. Neither of those games are going to be "easy." This game isn't going to be "easy" either, but Buffalo clearly has to be looking at this contest as a "must win" game. In fact, I'm banking on it! Of course Jackson and company really "want" to win this one, but would anyone fault the second year pro and Baltimore for finally having a "letdown" here and looking ahead to that much more winnable game at home next week? Baltimore managed the SU win over the 49ers last weekend, but not ATS. I think it stumbles here as well (additionally note that Baltimore is just 8-10 ATS in its last 18 after one more loss vs. the spread, including 1-3 ATS this season, while Buffalo is already a perfect 4-0 ATS this year as an underdog.) The bottom line is that I think the Ravens do indeed finally have their letdown, while I expect Buffalo to risk life and limb in front of the home town crowd. While the outright is possible, in the end let's grab the points.

10* GAME OF THE YEAR on the Buffalo Bills.