The set-up: Every season for the last decade or so, the Patriots will lose a couple of games and all of the pundits come out and say that Tom Brady has lost a step, or he doesn't have a good enough defense or enough weapons around him. New England has for the most part amassed its 10-2 record because of its hard-nosed defensive play, but a lot of that is due to the level of competition its faced. Brady and the offense have struggled a lot this season, including in last week's 28-22 loss to the Texans. The Chiefs have re-found their footing and enter having won two in a row, most recently destroying the Raiders 40-9.

The pick: Unlike Brady, Chiefs' QB Patrick Mahomes continues to excel, so far he has almost 3,000 yards passing to go along with 20 TD's to just two INT's. New England's offense has failed to score more than 22 points in each of its last three games, so the revenge-minded Chiefs offense definitely catches a break in the second matchup. KC is also 5-1 ATS in its last six as a road dog, while NE is already 0-2 ATS this year in all contests when the line is set between +3 and -3. Bank on Mahomes finally getting over the hump here and for the Patriots to also finally get exposed for their ineffeciencies on both sides of the ball. That said, grab the points.

9* PLAY-BOOK on the Kansas City Chiefs.