The set-up: Yes, Tom Brady has taken a major step back over the second half of the season, but I still think the veteran will have more than enough in the tank to bounce back here in this favorable spot. Off their first home loss since 2017, clearly the Pats are going to be in a foul mood today (I had a play on the Chiefs last Sunday.) It hasn't been all Brady's fault obviously, as he's lacking big time playmakers. That said, a game vs. Andy Dalton and the toothless Bengals is just what the doctor ordered to get untracked in my opinion. With a tough game at home next week vs. a revenge-minded Bills team that's breathing down their neck, it's now or never for Bill Belichick and company in Cincinnati this weekend.

The pick: The Pats have been money in the bank for bettors in this spot for years as well, going 13-2 ATS in their last 15 vs. teams with losing records (which includes going 4-0 ATS this season) and a perfect 3-0 ATS in their last three after having lost two out of their last three SU. The Bengals on the other hand are a money-burning 8-13 ATS in their last 21 at home, including 1-4 already this season. If you'd have asked Brady before the season started if he'd have been satisfied with a 13-3 campaign, I believe he'd have taken it on the spot. With a chance to still do that, I look for New England to finally start the turnaround this weekend. Consider laying the points.

1* FREE PLAY on New England.