The set-up: I had a play on the Pacers in their home win over the Celtics two nights ago. I then played against the Celtics last night in their second straight contest, this time at home to the 76ers. Philly won that game and now I think the Pacers will stumble here in similar fashion vs. this desperate Hawks side. Outright upset? Possible, but in a game which I do definitely envision coming down to whichever of these hungry teams has its hands on the ball last, I'm going to grab up what I feel to be a generous amount of points.

The pick: The Hawks give up a whopping 118.8 PPG, but the Pacers aren't blowing anyone away with their offense (Oladipo still sidelined with injury and while Malcolm Brogdon has been decent, offense is still Indiana's weakness.) Where the Pacers excel is on the defensive side, but Trae Young and company's strength is clearly on the offensive side (27.9 PPG average.) Finally note that Indiana is already a terrible 1-5 ATS this year as a road favorite of six points or less, while ATL is already a solid 3-1 ATS this season off a road blowout loss of 20 points or more (Hawks were just humbled in Chicago.) A three game home stretch follows this game for the Pacers, including a high-profile contest vs. the Lakers. I think the visitors get caught looking ahead and I look for the desperate/hungry home side to take advantage. Grab the points.

10* UNDERDOG ULTIMATE OF THE ULTIMATE on the Atlanta Hawks.