Arsenal has had a successful, although uninspiring start to this EPL campaign. They were fortunate to win late vs. Man U, struggled to fend off Palace by one goal, tied Fulham at home and beat Notts Forest by only one. Along the way they have fought their way to the 2nd best goals against record in the EPL. When you put that stat next to Everton’s league worst goals for record, it is hard to look past that.
Everton is looking like a threat to be a relegation club after losing to unimpressive Fulham and Wolves, drawing Sheffield and getting clobbered by Villa. In their last 6 at home, they have lost 5, scoring 2 and giving up 13. Even though Arsenal has struggled at Everton historically, this looks like the season they overcome that trend. Although Everton has created many chances in their games so far (their actual goals is less than their expected goals by more than any other club), they are coming up against a defensive powerhouse that has just started to see Rice and Zinchenko round into form. And at the other end of the park Saka and Oedegaard have been dominant, and Jesus has 8 goals in 9 games vs. Everton. Arsenal’s goal creating actions/90 is behind only Brighton and Man City (while Everton’s is tied for last). Things are going to get worse for Everton before they get better. Lay the goals and play Arsenal on this one.