The set-up: Obviously, the Astros are the better team. However, I think the stage is set for a closer game than what this insane moneyline price would suggest. I'll stop short in calling for the outright upset, but I do think the hungry Orioles can keep it competitive. The visiting side goes with Tom Eshelman (0-1, 7.27 ERA) who was crushed by these very Astros last week for six runs and striking out only one over four innings. Previous to that in his debut he looked good in holding the hard-hitting Jays to one run over five innings. I think Eshelman settles down here, and actually benefits in having already seen the Astros line-up.

The pick: Zack Greinke (8-2, 3.56), gave up one run and struck out four over 7.1 innings in a victory over these very Orioles last Tuesday. Greinke's been great this year, but note, while he's 5-0 with a 2.07 ERA on the road, he's just 3-2 with a 5.27 ERA at home. This one is going to be decided late, so let's take the visitors on the spread option tonight.

This is a 10* RUN-LINE BEST OF THE BEST on the Orioles.