Giants (Gausman) vs. Braves (Fried)

Two NL division- leading teams face off today. Atlanta, off a rare two day break, had their winning streak broken and lost a pair to the Yankees. They send Max Fried (11-7, 3.49) to the mound today. No pitcher has been hotter than Fried. He is 4-0 with a minuscule ERA of 0.67 in his last 4 games, and is coming off a complete game shut-out. His mound opponent is Giants ace Kevin Gausman (12-5). He has not been as dominant in the second half and is just returning from Covid vax side effects. His last start was short and poor, a bit of a trend lately.

The Giants have been able to win Gausman’s starts in spite of his shortcomings and much of this is a result of their superlative bullpen. Always dependable, they have a 1.60 era in their last 7 games. The Braves’ relief has been average at best. This is not such an issue if Fried continues to throw for length.

The two offenses are statistically remarkably similar, from runs scored to slugging %. The Giants are a very good road team, and remarkable as a road underdog. The Braves are good as a favorite but only an average home team.

I like Atlanta’s chances here, but worry about their relief. Take the Braves to win first five innings.