Astros (Garcia: 10-6, 3.21) vs Mariners (Flexen: 11-5)

The Mariners, 5 -5 in their last 10 starts have lost ground against the Astros. They need wins against the hard hitting Houston club, and Flexen is their most likely candidate. He has allowed 4 runs in his last 3 games while averaging just under 7 innings pitched. He is very good at home. He is supported by a Seattle bullpen that is generally good but lights out in their last 7 games.

The Astros’ starter, Luis Garcia has been equally effective in his last three starts, allowing 5 runs total in 16+ innings pitched. If he has struggled this year, it was on the road. While he is supported by the vaunted Houston hitters, the Astros relievers have not been dependable, to a tune of 7.55 ERA in their last 7 games.

It is hard to fault the Astros offense. They score more runs and have much higher OB% than the Mariners. They are dominant vs. right-handed pitching. The Mariners haven’t the same offense, but are a very good home team. Their home underdog record of 13-7 is significant.

I favor Flexen and the Mariners, but they will need the extra runs. Take Seattle +1.5.