Reds (Mahle, 11-5, 3.76) vs. Cards (Lester, 5-6, 4.89)

At 3-7 in their last 10, The Reds are in real danger of playing themselves out of contention, and have given the Cards some slight hope for their own play-off aspirations. This series is critical for both teams. Mahle has been consistent for the Reds. His last start was substandard, and he is known for the odd poor outing but for most of the season he has delivered. He is 1-1 in his last 3 games and regularly pitches into the 6th. He is 7-2 with an ERA of 1.90 on the road. The Cards Jon Lester is not the pitcher he once was, but a change of scenery seems to have done him a world of good. In 4 of 5 of his last starts with St. Louis, he has allowed only I ER per game. His last outing against the Reds was a 3-1 effort.

The Reds’ misfortunes lately can’t just be blamed on their struggling bullpen. Their offense is down considerably in average and run production. In fact, the relatively light-hitting Cards are outperforming them in recent weeks. The Cards’ bullpen is 3.51 in their last seven, which is much better than usual.

I have lost on Lester this year but his recent performance has been eye-opening. Between the Reds’ power outage and lackluster bullpen,I am wagering on the underdog Cardinals today, I think they may require the extra runs. Take the Cards + 1 ½.