Red Sox (Eovaldi, 2-0) vs Astros (Garcia, 0-1)

The Red Sox face elimination and have Eovaldi, their only successful starter, on the mound. Eovaldi has already started three games in the postseason, winning two of them. He was not quite as dominant in the start vs. the Astros, and was then called upon to pitch a very unwise bullpen 2/3 of an inning and was shelled for 4 ER. How this will impact on his start on Friday remains to be seen, but he will be pitching on 3 days rest twice.

Luis Garcia has started 2 games, lasted 3 2/3 innings and has an ERA well into the 20’s. He was also roughed up in his last regular season start. He has a history of inflated ERA in the first innings, but is a much better pitcher at home. The Astros are no doubt hoping for a turnaround similar to Valdez’s in the previous game, but it is less likely.

Valdez’s stellar start gave the Astros pen a solid day of rest, while the Red Sox used five relievers. The Red Sox pen has a collective ERA of 6.25 in their last 7 games, and has been relied on for over 4 innings of relief per game. The Astros bullpen is better at 4.08 ERA/7 games.

Both teams obviously have the ability to score runs in a hurry. The Red Sox, in the regular season, were not a terrific road team. Both teams hit right-handers very well.

I am doubtful of Garcia’s success today and can’t see Eovaldi lasting, Take the Sox/Astros total today to go over.