Things have suddenly gone a bit sideways for Wisconsin, who is 0-4 ATS its last four and lost twice straight up. Both losses did come to ranked teams, Michigan State and Illinois, but they were also by double digits. That’s a troubling sign for the Badgers.

The team from Madison had won seven in a row prior to losing to Michigan State on January 21st. But five of the wins were by six points or less. This isn’t a team that wins big very often. They have three double digits wins all season, all of them coming December 4th or earlier (two were in November).

So I’ll gladly take the points with Penn State tonight. The Nittany Lions are off a double overtime win over Iowa, but that was on Monday, so they’ve had plenty of time to recover. Wisconsin’s game in Illinois, which they lost, was on Wednesday. It’s a quicker turnaround for the favorite and they could be looking ahead to getting revenge against Michigan State on Tuesday.

Penn State is 6-3 ATS as an underdog this season. They covered the number at Purdue and also upset Indiana.

In 12 of their 13 games, Wisconsin has either lost or won by nine points or less. Take the points.