After a surprisingly high-scoring start, this series has become what we all thought it would be, a slugfest. The last two games, both Boston wins, have gone Under as only 184 and 173 total points were scored. We very well may see more than that here tonight, but expect Game 6 to still stay Under the total.

The Heat are facing a must-win here to force a Game 7 in Miami. With their starting five having scored a total of just 60 points the last two games, it would be in the team's best interest to ratchet up the defensive intensity. Fortunately, I don’t think that will be much of a problem.

The Celtics are just 18 of 67 from three-point range in the last two games. That’s well below 30%. Over the course of the entire postseason, the Heat are allowing just 100.2 points per game.

But, for Miami, the problem is that they are only averaging 98.2 points themselves in the Eastern Conference Finals while barely shooting 40%. The Celtics allowed the fewest points in the league during the regular season and have been just outstanding at the defensive end the last two games.

With the teams combining to miss 61 of the 78 three-point attempts in Game 5, there’s no reason to expect either side to hit 100 tonight. The Under is 6-2 in the Celtics' last eight games when favored.