The Av’s at home were a force at home this season. They are better rested and probably healthier, if the rumors around the Lightning are true. Kadri is back and made an impact, and Kuemper looked much better, especially in the early going when the Avalanche were badly outshot. Even with an early goal against and the Lightning all in, the Avalanche managed to turn the tide, and were back to their dynamic selves by the finish.

It was a demoralizing loss for the Lightning, and I don’t know if they have a road win in them, but they won’t give up easily, and there is always the Vasilevskiy factor to consider.

The odds on the Av’s are very high. I am sticking with the total in Game Five. At home, with the better energy, and the Cup in sight, I expect Colorado to be on fire on offense from the opening faceoff. Game Five could be a more wide open affair. If the Av’s score early, the Lightning will be force to follow. Shop around and take the total to go over.