The Reds are suddenly on a roll, sweeping the Rays and splitting to date with the Yankees. Meanwhile the Yankees look just slightly vulnerable at 5-5 L10. The Reds are getting solid pitching, starting and relief, and have Castillo on the mound today. Castillo (2.92 ERA) has really heated up in his last three starts, giving up just 2 runs in 20 innings and with some big strike out totals.

The Yankees pitching staff rarely struggles, but they have over the last week, with a collective ERA of 5.61. Lefty Cortes starts today. A few cracks are starting to appear in Cortes' fine season. His starts are shorter and he is giving up more runs (12 in his last 4 starts). Opposing batters' avg. has climbed to .275 in July. Add this to the Yankees' temporarily poor bullpen, and the Reds have a real opportunity for a second series victory. I am wagering on the Reds to keep this one close at least. Take the Reds on the run line, at + 1 1/2.