You don’t usually need a lot of runs to beat the Pirates these days. They are worst in the league on offense at the moment, scoring 2 or less in 7 of their last 9 games. They face a very fine right-hander in Zach Wheeler who has been very sharp in three of his four July starts. Other than a poor outing vs the Jays, he allowed just a single run over 21 innings, with a 2.45 ERA for the month. The Phillies’ bullpen has been better this year although they blew a fine outing from Wheeler last time out, so should be motivated this time out. The Phillies are middle of the road on offense but consistent, and certainly consistently better than the Pirates. They are a very good road team this year.

The Pirates’ Zach Thompson was very poor in April but has been usually solid since, until his last start when he struggled to 7 runs over 5 innings against the Marlins. It could be a one-off, but he has some very poor starts in his history. Thompson doesn’t usually offer much in the way of length, and Pirates bullpen, while ok lately, is not dependable over multiple innings.

Wheeler and the Phillies’ offense have too much of an edge on Thursday, and are a large favorite. With the number of runs the Pirates have been putting up and the number of runs Wheeler is not giving up, a solid Phillies win could be in order. take the Phillies on the run line at -1 1/2.