I’m going to lay the points here with South Alabama in the New Orleans Bowl. Since making the jump to the FBS level a decade ago, the Jaguars have never won in a bowl. They’ve only been to two, the last one coming in 2016 (a 45-21 loss to Air Force in the Arizona Bowl). Motivation always has to be part of your handicap in these early bowl games. USA should be motivated to win here.

Meanwhile, there’s an odd situation with Western Kentucky. Their QB Austin Reed, who was second in the country in passing yards (Penix of Washington #1), announced his intention to enter the transfer portal. But then there was an “about face” and Reed is back, set to start the bowl. Teammates are saying the right things, but it’s hardly ideal bowl prep.

The Sun Belt is already 3-0 in bowl games with Troy, Southern Miss and Marshall all victorious thus far. Conference USA is pretty weak and has already dropped two of three bowl matchups. The lone win was UAB against a MAC school (Miami OH). The MAC is the only conference I have rated lower than C-USA.

South Alabama was 2-10 SU three years ago and now has “flipped” that record, entering this game with a 10-2 record. Their defense is excellent, allowing just 19.4 points and 303.7 yards per game. This matchup is all about the Jaguars’ defense vs. the Hilltoppers’ offense.

Again, I’m playing the favorite here. USA’s only two losses this year were to Troy (Sun Belt Champs) and UCLA and they were by a combined five points! WKU also lost a close game to Troy and stayed within three at Indiana. But the Hoosiers aren’t a bowl team and the Hilltoppers also got blown out by North Texas and Auburn. USA’s motivation of trying to win their first bowl trumps all. 10*