It is the Bengals vs the Patriots in a Christmas Eve match-up. The Patriots are off a foolish loss in week 15. They beat poor teams (usually) but struggle more than expected vs elite ones. The Bengals, winners of 7 straight games, are an elite team, certainly on offense. Burrow's average passer rating is 105 over the last 3 weeks, and Week 15's was exactly double that of Mac Jones'. The Bengals have a solid run game in Mixon and Perine should they choose to use it, but really, the offense is all about the pass.

The Patriots are a top ten defense, but have given up more points than the Bengals' somewhat underrated D. NE's best quality is passer pressure: they are third in sacks and first in completion rate allowed. They do give up more TDs to opposing passers than might be expected. Burrow is certainly no stranger in dealing with passer pressure, and the Bengals' O-line is much improved.

The Patriots are very average on offense; mid-pack in points-scored, but last in red zone offense, and poor in third down conversions. They have a pair of solid running backs, but Mac Jones isn't scaring anyone lately. The Bengals defense is solid; eighth and improving in rush yards allowed. Their weak point is their pass defense. They are just 20th in passer yards given up, but other than last week, are very stingy in pass TDs allowed.

Anything can happen on any given week, but the Bengals' as a 3 point favorite is a golden opportunity to me. Jump on this play.