The Dolphins are home for Christmas after three straight road losses, so situation-critical for them. The Packers are off a pair of wins and still have a small shot at a wild card spot. Miami has a better record at home this season. They had better step up this week. They gave up 29 points on average in their last three games, a full 8 points off break-even. Other than passer pressure, their pass defense is pretty poor, averaging close to 300 yards in their last three games. Their red zone defense and 3rd down conversions-allowed are well below average as well.
Tua bounced back after a couple of rough outings, but in a bit of a twist, the Dolphins ran much more last week, resulting in a huge jump in rush play %, rush yards (188) and yds per carry (6.5). The Packers have a top ten pass defense, but struggle against the rush, so Miami would be wise to continue their run tactic.
It has been a disappointing season for the Packers, so it is difficult to buy their recent wins as a turnaround, however Rodgers does seem to have more confidence in his targets, and his receivers are healthy. I feel like the Packers match up well against the Dolphins. The Packers might just have a little gas in the tank for a playoff run, so this game is a must-win for them as well. I'm looking for the Packers in the warm climes of Miami to at least keep this game close. Take the Packers plus the points. Oh, and a Very Merry Christmas!!