At 9-4 overall, Air Force is a lot better than usual this year. The Flyboys have even covered seven in a row. But this is a spot to sell high on the Falcons as they face San Diego State, the class of the Mountain West.

The Aztecs aren’t defending as well this year as we’re accustomed to seeing, but are still 14th in the country in efficiency and that’s good enough for me. They should have beaten Arkansas (blew a double digit lead) and also have a win over Ohio State on the non-conference slate.

The offense has been better for SDSU as well and that’s while not shooting all that well from three. Air Force is due for some serious regression when it comes to three-point defense (opponents only hitting 24% against them) so this is a game I’ve targeted for the Aztecs to get hot from deep.

So far, Air Force has played one of the weakest schedules in the entire country. San Diego State will be the best team they’ve faced yet.

This number will scare some away, but not me as the Aztecs have won their last two games by a total of 50 points. They are also 7-0 at home with an average margin of victory of +18.0. Lay it. 10*