I am holding my nose this week and taking the Cowboy against a wounded and slumping Titans side. We don't know who will actually play for the Titans in a somehow meaningless game for their playoff hopes. For the Cowboys, Thursday's game is a fine chance to press for a play-off bye week, and an opportunity to work out some bugs in their recent inabilities to defend. There are some significant issues in the Cowboys' defense. Their tidal surge of passer pressure (3rd in the league) has ebbed alarmingly in their last three weeks, exposing some real problems. Their passing yards-allowed has climbed by a full 100yds L3, and is actually worse than the 31st ranked Titans' figures over the last three games. Their rushing yards allowed did improve in their last game, but their abilities against the run have not impressed in the second half of the season. Luckily for the Cowboys, the much injured Titans are in no position to take advantage. Tannehill, a very under-rated QB, is out and Henry, who is questionable, may well be rested. The Titans' pass attack was pitiful last week, and the Cowboys' passer rushers should have their way against a poor Titans' pass defense.
On the plus side for the Cowboys, Prescott and their pass offense has been outstanding in recent games. Prescott's passer rating was a monster 124 last week, in spite of 6 sacks. The Cowboys have averaged 270+ yards in the air with an over 70% completion rate lately. The Titans are dependably one of the worst teams against the pass and their sack % is just 3% over their last tree games. The Titans continue to be strong against the run, but in recent games we have seen the Cowboys rely less on their strong running game.
With just 14 points scored last week and an average of 18, that 10 points to cover looks like a reasonable bet this week. The Cowboys have averaged over 30 points lately, with 40 against the Eagles and 54 vs. the Colts. Take Dallas to show improvement on defense, roll on offense, and win and cover.