The Wizards upset the Bucks as 2.5-point underdogs on New Year’s Day, winning 118-95. But that upset comes with a giant asterisk. The Bucks were short handed for that game as Giannis Antetokounmpo sat out due to knee soreness. Jrue Holiday also missed the game with an illness and Khris Middleton didn’t play either.

Both Giannis and Holiday are expected to play in the rematch tonight. I’m expecting a big Bucks’ win at home.

The Bucks have dropped five of six, so they could use an impressive performance. The Wizards are 5-0 SU/ATS in their L5 games, but remember that it wasn’t that long ago they were on a 10-game losing streak.

With Giannis and Holiday on the floor, the Bucks have a +8.9 net rating and are a much better team defensively. I’m aware Washington may get Bradley Beal back, but when these teams are close to full strength, it’s a clear mismatch for Milwaukee.

When coming off an upset loss as a favorite, the Bucks are a perfect 6-0 against the spread this season. The Wizards’ have allowed an average of only 103.8 points during the five-game win streak, but that’s well below their season average of 112.4 and I’d expect them to regress at the defensive end sooner rather than later. Lay the points here. 10*