The Packers and the Saints are two teams that can score points in a hurry, and everyone is expecting a shootout in New Orleans tonight. While I can see the logic in that thinking, I think the total has just gotten a little too high here, and I see value playing against the public here in this spot.

Here are my keys to the game:

1 Line Value - While each of the last seven meetings between these two teams has gone over the total, the number in tonight's game is higher than it was in any of those games. The last meeting saw the Packers win by a score of 28-27, not quite enough to go over an inflated total here in this one.

2. Run The Ball - The Best way to beat a good quarterback, is to keep the ball out of his hands. Both coaches will be keeping that in mind, and if either team thinks it can run the ball and control the clock, it could slow down the pace of this game.

3. X-Factor - Jimmy Graham is expected to play despite being bothered by a sore shoulder. He's been not much more than a decoy in recent weeks though, and that has stopped the Saints from really opening things up offensively.

Selection: This is a play on the Packers@Saints to go UNDER the total (10*)