T.M. Selection: New Mexico State.

The Aggies are running red hot and I view this as a major value at home with this line rather low. This is a revenge game for Middle Tennessee State but that does not mean the Blue Raiders automatically win! In fact, in this case all it means is more line value for us keeping this line lower than it should be. The Aggies have won 3 straight games and have been great defensively with an average of only 56 ppg allowed in their last 5 games! Compare that to an MTSU team that is allowing 77 ppg last 5 games! Big difference! Yes Middle Tennessee State has some better numbers on the offensive end but this is the time of year that defense wins games as things tighten up heading toward March crunch time! The Aggies had 9 steals in the first meeting compared to just 2 steals for the Blue Raiders and I expect strong defense to again be the difference in the rematch. Per all of the above and including fantastic home team line value, you can see why the home team is the bet here!

T.M. Prediction: 74-65 New Mexico State