Going with underdogs that have lost at least seven straight straight up and are playing a team with an against the spread winning percentage of less than .750 is 197-125. This is a Performance Gap Analysis pick.

Based on years of experience, and significant trial and error, we have developed a performance gap analysis. It is based on the statistical hypothesis testing and concludes that yards per rush, yards per pass, and yards per play on offense and defense are most indicative of talent and less variable. They are lead indicators.

Yards per point and turnovers are more affected by random chance or luck and/or more correctable, hence more variable and tougher to maintain. They are lag indicators.

The former is more a precursor to future results than the latter and a dichotomy between the two subsets measures upside/downside.

This says that a team with a bad turnover rate and an inefficient defense is a very undervalued team to the tune of 1177-983-46 at 4.13 z-score.