We have a nice combo of several of our best metrics. Our true line (previously known as outlaw line) is -15. The true line is what the line would be without public perception or bad line moves. A 2.5 point difference once the line gets to double-digits is not huge, but nice corroborating data.

Likewise this is a sharp versus square, which is when our Vegas, offshore, and outlaw contacts tell us the majority of sharp money is betting one team, the square money the other. We go with the smart money as contrarian betting is used by many professional gamblers.

We have reduced the number of such picks after refining the metrics to raise the winning percentage. In short we have more sources that must validate it is widely authenticated. Generally this angle favors underdogs, but tonight it definitely points to the favorite.

Pitt is a dichotomous spread and straight up team. This means if a team is consistently winning outright but failing to cover or losing outright and covering, we ride the spread streak. This has proven to be a way to isolate over and undervalued teams.

They are 17-9 straight up but 7-15 against the spread including 2-8 road. Virginia is a slightly better team offensively but defensively is where they are head and shoulders better. Pitt allows 103.9 points per 100 possessions to rank 209 in the nation, while Virginia is second at allowing 85.4.

The Panthers are in a tough spot off a big win less than 48 hours earlier to UNC, but that was at home. Pitt has failed in to cover every road conference game, their only win by one-point.

This is the time of the year we fade teams that need to win. Teams on the outside of the bubble are there for a reason and Pitt certainly is. No way they play well twice in three days.