Cincinnati has 17th best defensive efficiency allowing 93.2 points per 100 possessions. Yes, yes Kentucky is the best at 85.5. But that is a ton to be laying to a grind-it-out team

Kentucky 57th luckiest by KenPom, much better than Cincy at 220. Many cappers, this one included, know the luckier teams tend to be overrated, unlucky underrated. The power line is 11. The oddsmakers every square wants to bet Kentucky and is terrified to bet against them, hence the line must account for that. It is just too high.