Teams coming off a game as a road underdog in which they committed few fouls 252-364-16. This says to fade Phoenix. Golden State remains the top spread team in the NBA, not only in record but also in margin of cover or so-called sweat barometer.

Phoenix has dropped four straight where it counts by an average of 12.625 points per game against the spread. Their net rating is -12.6, fifth worst in the NBA in that span.

The Warriors latest spread streak is 8-0 with all but one by 6.5 or more. In that span, the Warriors have a net rating of 17. Net rating is the difference between offensive and defensive ratings points per 100 possessions. They have both the second best offense and defense in the NBA in that span and the best net.

Then again, the Warriors have far and away the best net rating for the season at 12.1. By comparison, the Clippers are second at 6.4.

We have nice corroboration with some angles that say going with a home team on a long straight up winning streak against a team off a loss is a very solid and strong play over the decades.