It’s a rare case in which a team has a better than 30 points per game plus margin in Game 3 or later. Such teams are a 4-0 bet-against. This is pretty much a clear-cut example of using the oddsmakers knowledge against them.
The Saints have been easily the most dominant team in the NFL, yet are only laying 1.5 to a .500 team on a short week. When a line is counterintuitive to season to date and/or recent play, listen to what the crookies are telling us.
Regression towards the mean angle based on yards per point is 77-42-7. Underdogs that have not overachieved are 1232-1027-63. Another that basically says when a road team is not as big of an underdog as the margin and SU records imply they should be, go with the message the oddsmakers are sending and bet on that undervalued versus overvalued team at 217-174-15.

This is also an outsourced pick from the short-list of very entrusted experts. Previously called a competitor consensus, the name was changed to reflect it does not always come from the few quality professionals who sell picks, but also can come from any sharp source. As long as I am not leaning the other way, I will bet a trusted outscource.
Easily the strongest computer bet on Betting Pros with a 63 percent chance to cover. It is also the strongest bet with Action Network power ratings, which says New Orleans is just .6 points better, giving us a 4.1 EV. Oddstrader has this a one-point game.