The Saints have just two road wins including by two points to the lowly Buccaneers. As is so often the case with teams led by a rookie QB, the Jets are much better at home as the home team is 6-2 straight up in their games.

The fact the Jets beat New England two weeks ago only to be annihilated at the Bengals last week personifies how consistently inconsistent they have been. They are 3-0 straight up and against the spread off a loss this season and the two previous bounce back games were off of losses of 13 and 25. That makes them a great play as a bloated home underdog.

New Orleans was sloppy against a Buffalo team with a subpar backup QB. Our true line (previously known as outlaw line) is New Orleans (-3.5). The true line is what the line would be without public perception or bad line moves.

I have not even bet the game yet because I expect square money to make this at least 6.5.