Going against double-digit favorites after allowing 85 or fewer points is a very impressive 411-295. This is very consistent with our knowledge that counterintuitive angles have always been the most time tested. Joey Bagofdonuts would rather bet on a superior team off a great defensive effort, but sharps know that is knee-jerk and fade the overlay. Percentage wise it is even better at 90-55 last five years and 9-5 this season.