We tell you time and time again, when handicapping point spreads, the most overrated statistic is straight up won-loss mark. Marshall continues to be very competitive in losses. In fact, each of their last five losses are by eight or less, with three of the last four setbacks by three or fewer.

Marshall has posted a 3-14 mark in games decided by 10 or fewer points. The Herd is 1-6 in games decided by five or fewer points this season, with all six losses by three or less. So they are better than their record.

Over the past 13 weeks, Marshall has snagged five C-USA Freshman of the Week honors between a pair of Herd first years. Again, young teams improve as the season goes along, even more so on the road.

Again, unless a team makes a huge upgrade in conference, when teams switch leagues, they generally have a motivational edge in having something to prove. As we say, it is almost like a one-way rivalry, but there is clearly a point of diminishing return. Well After starting league play 3-0 and having been the final unbeaten team in conference play, ODU has since gone 3-6 straight up against C-USA foes, dropping 8-of-10 to the number.

Joe Duffy's Picks MARSHALL +6

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