Go with NL team hitting .255 or less with the line of +/-125 with bullpen ERA of 4.50 or above and with a starting pitcher with five or six days rest (well rested but not rusty) is 324-235 +94.9 units.

Wannabe experts get all giddy when the discover splits where one team is much better at home than on the road. While we have exploited extremes like that the truth is we real sharps know the value is when teams play disproportionately better on the road.

The Mets are 7-3 on the road +6.2 units while the Phillies are -2.4 at home. They are 2-6 as home favorites. Last five games the Mets have has a slugging percentage edge of .365 to .328.

Bartolo Colon has numbers distorted by one horrid outing. He has had three very good outings and one okay trip. So one terrible out of five keeps the line nice. He has given up four runs in his last two outings over 14 IP. Kyle Kendrick has zero personal wins in his last 12 starts. The Mets are 14-5 +14.2 units at Philadelphia.