FSU has become is a dichotomous spread and straight up team. This means if a team is consistently winning outright but failing to cover or losing outright and covering, we ride the spread streak. This has proven to be a way to isolate over and undervalued teams. They are 3-0 straight up but 0-3 against the spread. That includes the first two games with Jameis Winston. At -16.3 they have one of the worst spread margins in the nation.

True, this is the first test of the season for State, but they will put all their emotional eggs into this basket. A close loss is a big building block game. FSU can keep winning ugly and of course if they remain undefeated there is a 100 percent chance of them making the playoffs.

FUS was held to 13 rushing yards on 27 attempts with QB Sean Maguire was sacked five times. The Wolfpack averages 502 yards per game, which is the best in the ACC, and has rushed for 248.7 yards per game, an improvement of 86 yards per game from last season. Is the offense that good? Of course not, but they are improved. FSU coming off a year in which everything fell right for them is now overvalued. They win by 17, but do not cover.