This is a Performance Gap Analysis pick.

Based on years of experience, and significant trial and error, we have developed a performance gap analysis. It is based on the statistical hypothesis testing and concludes that yards per rush, yards per pass, and yards per play on offense and defense are most indicative of talent and less variable. They are lead indicators.

Yards per point and turnovers are more affected by random chance or luck and/or more correctable, hence more variable and tougher to maintain. They are lag indicators.
The former is more a precursor to future results than the latter and a dichotomy between the two subsets measures upside/downside. We have an angle that says to go with a team with a high turnover ratio and a very inefficient defense based on yards per point that is literally 194 games above .500 with a z-factor of 4.15.

Jags are much better with Blake Bortles at QB both tangibly and he gives them a big left and legitimate hope for the future. They are getting healthier at WR. It should be no shock off most completions and yards for season.

Brian Hoyer is for real but now becomes a victim of one of our Golden Rules: it is easier to be the hunter than the hunted. As a big road favorite, he faces burden of higher expectations rather than wearing the Cinderella slipper.

Winless home underdogs with at least five losses are 129-91-3 against the spread a nice 58.64 rate.